{"id":105983,"date":"2023-07-11T16:26:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T09:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thestorythailand.com\/?p=105983"},"modified":"2023-07-12T10:09:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T03:09:07","slug":"kresearch-expects-that-the-thai-economy-in-2h23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thestorythailand.com\/en\/kresearch-expects-that-the-thai-economy-in-2h23\/","title":{"rendered":"KResearch expects that the Thai economy in 2H23"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has announced its Thai economic outlook for the second half of 2023. While KResearch maintains its 2023 GDP growth at 3.7 percent and export growth at -1.2 percent, it cuts its forecast for public sector consumption and investment, pending the new government\u2019s formation. Meanwhile, concerns persist over the severity of the ongoing drought and the substantial amount of household debt which remains unresolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nattaporn Triratanasirikul<\/strong>, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said, \u201cThe Thai economy during the latter half of 2023 will show a more promising outlook, compared to the first half, fueled by the tourism high season. International tourist arrivals for 2023 are projected to reach 28.5 million, thus prompting 2H23 GDP growth to stand at around 4.3 percent, surpassing the figure of 3.0 percent for the first half. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Thailand\u2019s economic recovery will face numerous challenges during the second half of 2023. The first challenge lies in the formation of a new government and how it will deal with the faltering Chinese economy, which could present risks to the ASEAN and Thai economies that rely heavily upon China. KResearch maintains its 2023 GDP growth at 3.7 percent and export growth at -1.2 percent but cuts its forecast for public sector consumption and investment, pending the new government\u2019s formation. Meanwhile, household debts are a complex issue that requires effective resolution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another challenge is drought. Kevalin Wangpichayasuk<\/strong>, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said, \u201cAside from the adverse impacts of drought on the agricultural sector, estimated at 48 billion Baht during 2023, it is expected that the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon may put pressure on the manufacturing and service sectors that use tremendous quantities of water, including non-metal, food processing, textiles, tourism and hospitals, especially the\u00a0 businesses located in the eastern and central regions where there is a potential water shortage or crisis. The shortage of water may force businesses to reduce their production capacities or limit services, leading to loss of income. Several industries, including food processing, will continue to experience the rising costs of agricultural-based raw materials. Additionally, drought-related issues may persist into 2024, with a potential severity greater than that seen in 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, there is the matter of hefty household debt. Thanyalak Vacharachaisurapol<\/strong>, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, is of the view that the household debt to GDP ratio will stand in a range of approximately 88.5-91.0 percent at the end of 2023, against the figure of 90.6 percent as of the end of the first quarter of 2023. However, it is unlikely that the household debt to GDP ratio will decline to 80 percent within the next five years. That ratio is considered the level at which the economy can continue to grow without interruption, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand\u2019s measures may cause new debt to grow at a slower rate and existing debt to decline faster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, KResearch\u2019s survey results on household debt in Bangkok and metropolitan areas, with a sample size of 400, highlight significant concerns about the debt issue, particularly among low-income earners. The survey respondents tended to cite the importance of the \u2018income\u2019 factor in achieving sustainable debt resolution. Regarding the Bank of Thailand\u2019s debt solution measures, the initial focus is on cutting persistent debts, especially revolving personal loans, with lower interest rates to enable borrowers\u2019 full debt repayment within four years. Preliminarily speaking, commercial banks are expected to see a limited impact of roughly no more than 2 percent of net profits in the Thai banking system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, borrowers may need to shoulder higher monthly repayments. Additionally, the new government is expected to put effort towards managing substantial debt burdens, particularly among farmers, teachers, and civil servants (the debts incurred by teachers and police officers account for approximately 10.5 percent of total household debt), as well as the debts transferred to the Asset Management Company (AMC), amounting to hundreds of billions of baht. Thus far, these sectors have yet to receive sufficient support from the assistance measures. Moreover, debts of retail and small business customers largely remain unresolved. These circumstances will eventually affect household livelihoods and the viability of small businesses in Thailand going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MINT announces acquisition of Sizzler brand<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LINE unveils behaviors of Gen Y, driving Thai economy through chat<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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