{"id":163131,"date":"2025-09-25T17:38:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T10:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thestorythailand.com\/?p=163131"},"modified":"2025-09-25T17:39:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T10:39:00","slug":"innovestx-warns-fed-policy-is-top-global-risk-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thestorythailand.com\/en\/innovestx-warns-fed-policy-is-top-global-risk-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"InnovestX warns Fed policy is top global risk for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As the global economy heads into 2026, the investment landscape is shifting from concerns over trade tensions to a new focus on monetary policy, according to a recent analysis by InnovestX Securities. The firm projects a cautiously optimistic outlook, buoyed by easing US tariff measures, but flags the U.S. Federal Reserve’s evolving stance as the primary risk for investors to navigate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The investment climate in Q4 2025 is becoming clearer as economic uncertainty subsides, supported by faster-than-expected rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve,” said Sutthichai Kumworachai<\/strong>, Head of Research Department at InnovestX Securities. “While the U.S. economy is slowing, it is not in recession, which supports risk assets. A weakening dollar also increases the appeal of emerging markets, including Thailand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecast suggests that the primary global risk has now pivoted. “The main risk has shifted from trade wars to the Federal Reserve’s policy,” said Dr.Piyasak Manason<\/strong>, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities. “We are concerned that the Fed is focusing too heavily on the labor market at a time when inflation is trending upwards. If inflation continues to accelerate next year, it could create significant problems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This policy direction could lead to faster and more substantial interest rate cuts, resulting in a weaker U.S. dollar. For emerging markets, this presents a double-edged sword. InnovestX forecasts the Thai Baht could strengthen to a range of 31-32 per U.S. dollar between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 before gradually weakening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An interesting phenomenon in the U.S. financial markets is the “Bull Steepening” of the bond yield curve, where short-term yields fall faster than long-term ones. While typically a recessionary signal, analysts believe this instance is a direct result of the Fed’s policy easing and is therefore less of a concern than in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the global picture shows signs of improvement, the outlook for Thailand is more subdued. Dr. Piyasak forecasts a slowdown over the next four quarters, with annual growth projected at 1.8% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. Hopes for the domestic economy are pinned on the new government’s economic team, planned stimulus measures, and infrastructure investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic Diversification in a Changing World<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Given the transitional economic environment, InnovestX strongly advises a disciplined approach to asset allocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“For Q4 2025, portfolios should be managed prudently with a focus on diversification, especially after the market rally since April,” said Dr.Rhatsarun Tanapaisankit<\/strong>, Head of Investment Strategy & Trading Product Specialist at InnovestX Securities. “We continue to favor high-quality U.S. stocks and see a ‘catch-up play’ in S&P 500 Equal Weight strategies. European equities are supported by fiscal stimulus, while emerging markets, particularly China, stand to benefit from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Thailand, the focus is on domestic plays that can capitalize on the new government’s economic agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sittichai Duangrattanachay<\/strong>a, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, stated that the Thai stock market’s downside risk is limited. “We are focusing on companies set to benefit from domestic economic recovery, tourism, a favorable interest rate outlook, and a stronger baht attracting foreign capital,” he said. InnovestX has set a 2025 SET Index target of 1,350\u20131,400 points, viewing any level below 1,200 as an attractive entry point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top Thai stock picks with strong fundamentals include AP (property), CENTEL (tourism), DIF (REIT), HMPRO (retail), and MTC (financial services).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond equities, the firm recommends short-to-medium-term bonds to mitigate long-term volatility, gold as an effective hedge, and sees value in Thai REITs for their superior dividend yields compared to global counterparts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overarching message for 2026 is that the era of riding broad macroeconomic tailwinds is giving way to a period where success will be defined by meticulous analysis and sharp-eyed stock selection. As the world transitions, discerning investors who can identify fundamentally strong assets aligned with clear growth themes will be best positioned to build wealth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haier Invests $270M in Thailand for Global AC Export Hub<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gartner forecasts worldwide AI spending will total $1.5 trillion in 2025<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

InnovestX Outlines 2026 Investment Strategy: Cautious Optimism as Fed Policy Replaces Trade Wars as Key Risk<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":163113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[117,13940],"tags":[16324,37246,37247,37248,37249,37250],"class_list":["post-163131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-en","category-finance","tag-innovestx-2","tag-fed-policy","tag-investment-landscape","tag-sutthichai-kumworachai","tag-piyasak-manason","tag-rhatsarun-tanapaisankit"],"yoast_head":"\nInnovestX warns Fed policy is top global risk for 2026 - The Story Thailand<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"InnovestX Outlines 2026 Investment Strategy: Cautious Optimism as Fed Policy Replaces Trade Wars as Key Risk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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