KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) reports that the “America First” trade policy has fundamentally shifted global trade structures, driving heightened economic uncertainty. The policy has expanded from targeted measures against China to a broader global tariff regime across multiple industries.
Despite the aggressive stance, KResearch notes the initial impact was less severe than anticipated due to delayed implementation in August 2025 and a lack of immediate global retaliation. However, the shift has forced nations to urgently recalibrate geopolitical and supply chain strategies.
Burin Adulwattana, Managing Director and Chief Economist of KResearch, said the announcement of the ‘America First’ trade policy by President Donald Trump marked a shift in US policy direction. This change has not only affected the structure of global trade, but has also accelerated the need for other countries to significantly adjust their strategies in terms of geopolitics and supply chains. Measures that initially targeted China have expanded into the imposition of import tariffs on many countries worldwide and across multiple industries, resulting in heightened uncertainty for the global economy and international trade.
Over the past year, President Trump has invoked national security and political considerations to impose import tariffs, including reciprocal tariffs and product-specific tariffsunder Section 232. Additionally, President Trump has pursued a geopolitical policy aligned with the Monroe Doctrine, which views North and South America as the US sphere of influence. This is reflected in the establishment of reciprocal tariffs for most Latin American countries at 10 percent, while Brazil has been subject to a 50-percent tariff for political reasons.
However, the ‘America First’ policy has not had as severe an impact on global trade, or the US and world economy, as initially expected. This is partly because the implementation of this measure was delayed (starting in August 2025), and most countries did not raise import tariffs in retaliation against the US government.
Key Market Shifts and China’s Resilience
While Chinese exports to the US fell by approximately 20% in 2025, China achieved a record global trade surplus of USD 1.2 trillion. This was driven by redirecting exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Africa, partly through transshipment to bypass tariffs. China continues to leverage its monopoly on rare earths and critical minerals as a strategic countermeasure against US Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductors.
The 2026 Outlook: Global Trade Milestones
KResearch identifies five critical events that will define trade in 2026:
- April: Meeting between President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
- Legal Rulings: Potential invalidation of the IEEPA for tariff implementation.
- July: Review of the USMCA Agreement.
- November: US midterm elections.
- November: Expiration of the current tariff suspension between China and the US.
Strategic Implications for Thailand
As the US “builds walls,” other nations are “building bridges” through new alliances. India, for instance, finalized its FTA with the EU after 20 years of talks, gaining a significant edge under the “America First” landscape.
KResearch warns that Thailand is losing competitiveness to India in the US and EU markets, particularly in the gems and jewelry industry. The report concludes that the Thai government must expedite FTA negotiations with both the EU and the US to mitigate further disadvantages.
True reports fourth straight quarterly profit, Proposes THB 4.1 billion dividend
CKPower’s 2025 profit hits THB 2.3 billion, on Xayaburi & Nam Ngum gains
