InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., the investment arm of SCBX Group, has released its third-quarter 2026 economic outlook and investment strategy under the theme “Breaking Free from Gravity.” The company projects that the global economy will encounter a U-shaped recovery, with near-term external headwinds followed by a rebound later in the year.
For the Thai market, InnovestX sets the 2026 SET Index upper bound at 1,550–1,600 points, indicating limited upside and highlighting a selective investment approach, with a key entry point identified below the 1,500-point mark. Prominent sectors for investment include Banking, Tourism, Electronic Components, Industrial Estates, Information & Communication Technology (ICT), and Utilities.
Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, explained that the global economy is in a transition period governed by opposing forces. The market faces three primary downside pressures: energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertain U.S. monetary policy. Conversely, three growth drivers are gaining momentum to support the market: artificial intelligence (AI) investments, easing geopolitical tensions, and large-scale fiscal stimulus across major economies.
Global U-Shaped Trend and Thailand GDP Growth Upgrade
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research, stated that global economic activity is expected to soften during the second and third quarters of 2026 due to tighter global financial conditions, declining U.S. consumer confidence, weakening European manufacturing, and China’s K-shaped growth—where strong manufacturing and exports contrast with subdued domestic spending. A gradual recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, driven by technology investments and global fiscal stimulus.
Concurrently, InnovestX has upgraded its 2026 Thailand GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%. This adjustment is attributed to private investment, the digital and electronics industries, AI infrastructure, and government stimulus measures. Key domestic variables under surveillance include the progress of local government measures, the momentum of AI investments, and U.S. Section 301 trade measures.
Q3 Market Drawdown Expected Ahead of Q4 Structural Rebound
Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, noted that while structural tailwinds—including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, the AI investment supercycle, and positive sentiment ahead of the November 2026 U.S. elections—will limit downside risks, near-term obstacles persist. Markets face downward pressures from an intensifying El Niño phenomenon, potential increases in U.S. import tariffs, and hawkish global central bank policies aimed at managing inflation.
Consequently, a market drawdown is anticipated in 3Q26, followed by a structural rebound in 4Q26. InnovestX advises a “Stay Invested, Stay Selective” strategy, targeting companies with robust balance sheets, pricing power, and clear earnings visibility. The firm’s top stock picks for 3Q26 are CENTEL, CPN, GULF, HANA, and WHA.
DR23 Portfolios Expand Global Diversification Gateways
Recognizing the necessity of global diversification, Saran Potewiratananond, Head of Proprietary Trading, reported that InnovestX’s DR23 product line has expanded within its first year to encompass 85 underlying securities. These instruments track assets across four countries and six international exchanges, including the United States, Hong Kong, China, and Japan, allowing local investors to trade global assets through the Stock Exchange of Thailand using Thai baht.
The DR23 instruments cover various global investment themes, such as AI, semiconductors, robotics, digital platforms, healthcare, energy, dividend strategies, and international ETFs, operating under the concept of “Making Global Investing Easy with DR23.”
Strategic Direction for Risk Management
InnovestX concludes that maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on quality assets, and targeting long-term global megatrends remain vital to managing market volatility. The company offers its market insights and research via its designated online platforms, while reminding investors that DR investments carry specific risks, including price fluctuations of underlying foreign securities, exchange rate volatility, issuer risk, and liquidity risk.
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