Gartner, Inc., a leading global business and technology insights firm, projects that the total number of electric vehicles (EVs) in use—including cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks—will reach 116.2 million units by 2026. This represents a significant 30% increase from 2025, even as major markets face shifting regulatory landscapes and the withdrawal of financial incentives.
Global EV Installed Base Forecast (2025-2026)
According to the latest global EV installed base forecast, the worldwide electric vehicle fleet is projected to reach 116,179,563 units by 2026, marking a robust 29.7% growth from the 89,554,951 units estimated in 2025.
While Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will maintain the largest share of the market with over 76.3 million units (up 28.3%), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to experience a more rapid expansion at a growth rate of 32.5%, reaching nearly 39.8 million units. This data underscores a significant shift in the automotive landscape, as consumers increasingly adopt electric powertrains with a notable rising interest in hybrid solutions.
The Rise of the Hybrid: Why PHEVs are Gaining Ground
While Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) still constitute over half of the global EV fleet, Gartner has revised their 2026 market share forecast downward from 77% to 63%. This shift highlights a growing consumer preference for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), which are expected to see a 32% year-over-year increase.
Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, notes that customers increasingly value the “reassurance of a back-up petrol engine.” This trend has led industry leaders like BYD to pivot toward PHEV models and “range extender” vehicles—where a petrol engine acts as a generator to charge the battery—offering a smoother electric driving experience without the “range anxiety” associated with pure electric models.
Regional Outlook: China Leads While U.S. Cools
- China’s Continued Dominance: China is projected to account for 61% of the total global EV installed base in 2026. Intense domestic competition has driven down prices, fueling demand even as the Chinese government begins to scale back subsidies and intervene in manufacturer discounting.
- U.S. Market Challenges: In contrast, demand in the United States has slowed. This is attributed to the introduction of import tariffs and the removal of various federal and state-level purchase incentives, making EV adoption less financially attractive for some consumers.
Regulation Over Demand: The Path to Net Zero
The report emphasizes that the primary driver for EV development remains regulatory pressure rather than organic consumer demand. Governments worldwide are prioritizing air quality and climate change by signaling the phase-out of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. The core objective is a drastic reduction in particulate matter (PM) and $CO_2$ emissions, positioning EVs as the only viable path forward for automakers to meet stringent environmental standards.
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